Asia Pacific photovoltaic markets are set to grow rapidly and are projected to account for approximately one-quarter of global demand by 2015, up from 11% in 2010, according to the latest Asia Pacific Major PV Markets report from Solarbuzz. The top five markets in this region-China, Japan, India, Australia, and South Korea-are projected to account for 3.3 GW of demand in 2011, with China and Japan leading the region.
“Market growth expectations are high for the region, China and India in particular, as they each have multi-gigawatt project pipelines. However, the largest challenge facing many of these projects is the need to secure financing amidst a still evolving policy and regulatory environment,” said Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz. “If these policies are successful in delivering the projected growth for the Asia Pacific region, it will help offset the impact of incentive cuts across Europe.
The on-grid ground-mount segment is expected to lead the way in building India’s installed capacity, with installations expected to at least double in 2011. The National Solar Mission, as well as state level policies in Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra are leading to strong growth, with these three states accounting for as much as 70% of the total Indian market in 2011. Armed with the goal of installing 22 GW of new solar capacity by 2022, the National Solar Mission has sanctioned
300 MW of on-grid PV capacity to be installed through 2011 and 2012, with an additional 300 MW to be allocated in 2H’11. Though the first round of projects has experienced setbacks due to high capital costs, low returns, and regulatory hurdles, a potential restructuring of project guidelines is likely to stimulate higher success rates of future projects. As of June 2011, the on-grid pipeline of projects targeted for completion by 2013 stood at 1.5 GW.
Panchabuta in June this year had said that the estimated capacity based on allotments/concessions and PPA signed in India was about 1.5GW in the next year in Solar PV and there have been reports talking about 700MW of installed capacity by 2011. However we believe that one could expect about 300MW of projects to be commissioned by March 2012 with about 150-200 MW under construction as a reasonably optimistic scenario based on market intelligence and feedback from industry insiders working with project developers on the ground.